NEW DELHI: The current rainfall deficit in India stands at a concerning 43% as of Saturday, a situation anticipated to improve when the monsoon progresses to cover the entire nation next month. However, this year’s monsoon, already influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, is unlikely to receive the favorable climatic support from the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which usually mitigates the adverse effects.

There is a significant likelihood that the overall monsoon may conclude with a deficit exceeding 10%, according to predictions from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). While a positive IOD is not a guarantee of ample rain, it often lessens the detrimental effects usually associated with El Niño years. Notably, some years marked by El Niño have experienced near-normal precipitation, thanks to the strong positive influence of the IOD on the monsoon.

Understanding the Indian Ocean Dipole

The IOD is a crucial climatic element that refers to the fluctuations in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern regions of the Indian Ocean. This phenomenon plays a key role in affecting the summer monsoon alongside the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Currently, neutral IOD conditions are noted over the Indian Ocean. The IMD’s predictions highlight that these neutral conditions are expected to persist throughout the southwest (summer) monsoon season, according to the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS).

Concerns Over Drought Conditions

In light of the existing El Niño, the IMD has forecast ‘below normal’ rainfall for this monsoon season (June to September), with a 60% chance of experiencing deficits (exceeding 10% overall deficit during this period), raising concerns over potential drought conditions.

The nation currently faces a troubling cumulative rainfall deficit of 43% for the period from June 1 to June 27. Many states are already reporting rainfall shortfalls of 50% or more. Notably, Meghalaya has recorded the highest deficit at 82%, followed by Gujarat at 79%, Manipur at 71%, and Chhattisgarh at 68%. Other states reflecting significant deficits include Jharkhand (66%), Maharashtra (59%), Uttar Pradesh (56%), Odisha (52%), and Bihar (50%).

Impacts on Agriculture

The situation in Madhya Pradesh is particularly alarming, reflecting a 41% shortfall in rainfall, as this state is considered part of the ‘monsoon core zone’, heavily relying on monsoon rains for agricultural activities. The scenario across peninsular India is equally dire, with states such as Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana all reporting deficits exceeding 30%, despite having been under monsoon conditions for the last two to three weeks.