NEW DELHI: The threat of below-normal monsoon rainfall looms large over India due to the intensifying El Niño phenomenon. However, the latest monthly global seasonal climate update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), released late on Friday night, provides a glimmer of hope for improved weather conditions.
The WMO has forecasted the potential development of a “positive” Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which may counterbalance some of the adverse effects of El Niño. This climatic event, characterized by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, has historically been linked to a weakened monsoon and intensified summer conditions in India.
In contrast, the IOD pertains to the temperature variations between the western and eastern regions of the tropical Indian Ocean and is instrumental in bolstering monsoon winds. According to the WMO, “A positive IOD is expected to develop. Combined with exceptionally warm global oceans and the likelihood of a positive IOD, the evolving El Niño is anticipated to influence weather patterns across various regions worldwide in the coming months.”
If the forecast by the WMO holds true, we may witness improved rainfall patterns particularly in the southern peninsular region of India, which reported a significant cumulative rainfall deficit of 22% as of August 1. This could enhance conditions across many regions of the country.
The monsoon may thus avoid entering a deficient phase, with the positive IOD possibly preventing a transition from the ‘below normal’ classification to a ‘deficient’ monsoon phase as the season draws to a close.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and IOD are critical elements influencing variations in monsoon rainfall. While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated the continuation of “neutral” IOD conditions for the remaining duration of the southwest (summer) monsoon, it also acknowledged that several international forecasting centers predict that positive IOD conditions may emerge in September.
